Lately, I’ve noticed a pattern in my own thinking: instead of obsessing over market manias or the geopolitical scare of the week, I keep circling back to three quietly important things that don’t make the headlines. This undeniably confirms that I’ve crossed the line into full wealth-planning nerd territory. But all three matter in practical ways to real people trying to make good decisions with their money, so I thought I’d share what’s been on my mind.
1) TFSA contribution room: trust, but verify
The TFSA contribution room shown on the CRA website is best thought of as a helpful starting point—not a live scoreboard. In most cases, it reflects your available room as of January 1, 2026, based on TFSA activity the CRA has on file up to December 31, 2024. It does not subtract any contributions (or for redemptions) you make during 2025 itself, and it can lag in capturing last year’s deposits and withdrawals until sometime this upcoming Spring.
Each January 1, the government adds the new annual limit (for 2026, that’s $7,000), but the CRA’s posted number will still ignore everything you contributed or redeemed during 2025 until those figures are processed. In other words: trust, but verify because the CRA’s number is more of a rearview mirror than a real-time GPS. If you rely on it blindly, you run the risk of over-contributing and earning yourself an annoying letter from Ottawa.
2) CRM3: a quiet win for everyday investors
The Client Relationship Model Phase 3 (CRM3) is the latest step in a long-running effort by Canadian regulators to make investing clearer and fairer for everyday investors. Earlier reforms—CRM1 and CRM2—improved transparency around advisor relationships, fees, and performance reporting. CRM3 builds on that foundation by requiring banks, fund companies and other firms to show the total cost of owning your investments in plain dollar terms, including not only what you pay directly to us, but also the embedded costs inside investment funds, such as management and trading fees.
For investors, this is a meaningful win. When your annual investment reports begin reflecting CRM3 next January, you will see what your investments truly cost you all-in. That clarity makes it easier to assess whether you are getting good value, compare your options more intelligently, and have better conversations with us. We fully support these reforms–people deserve full transparency when making financial decisions. Just as CRM1 and CRM2 improved trust and understanding, CRM3 moves the system closer to an investor-friendly marketplace.
3) Long-term equity returns: a reality check after three great years
One of the things I find most helpful in CI Global Asset Management’s new long-term capital market assumptions, (read it here: CI GAM 2026 Outlook,) is how clearly they explain why future equity returns, such as your expected 10 year average, are expected to be strong, but lower: not because the world is falling apart, but because the last few years were unusually strong. After a powerful rebound and three years of outsized gains—especially in U.S. large cap equities—markets are now starting from much higher valuation levels than normal. When you begin at elevated prices, the math of long-term investing changes. Even if companies keep growing and the economy remains healthy, future returns tend to be more modest simply because there’s less “valuation upside” left.
What I like about this framework is that it resets expectations in a rational way. CI lowered long-term return assumptions for U.S., Canadian, and European equities primarily because starting valuations are high—not because they expect weaker economic growth or a broken system. In fact, as per the table below, they still assume stable long-term global growth, productivity gains from technology and AI, and inflation near central-bank targets. What’s changed isn’t the economic engine—it’s the price investors are paying for future earnings. That’s a normal and healthy recalibration after an exceptional run, not a bearish signal.
And this is where behavioural finance matters. After three very strong years, it’s easy to fall into recency bias and assume high returns are the new normal. It’s also a classic case of extrapolation error—projecting recent performance too far into the future. Lower long-term return forecasts aren’t a warning sign; they’re a reality check. They help anchor expectations back to something sustainable and reinforce why disciplined diversification, patience, and realistic planning matter more than ever.
Have a great weekend. – CHRIS
